One week to go

I don’t know what it is about this nebulous time between the official announcement of the event and the event itself that stirs up the rumor mill to new heights every time. My guess is that it’s a combination of factors. Rumor sites want to publish something new every day to keep their page hits going. So they’re hungry for any news at all. Apple certainly has a vested interest in energizing people even more than they already are. So they perform controlled leaks, both to pique interest and to tame expectations. As the Big Day approaches, a few more Apple employees, ones that aren’t locked away in a bunker, are given a sprinkling of information on a “need to know” basis, and for some of them, the temptation to be the “guy in the know” is just too great. Combine that with reporters anxious for any new information, and you get a lot more “a guy I know at Apple told me” kinds of stories. 

And never forget the BUSINESS of Apple rumoring. Stock price manipulation is always rampant during these cycles. So analysts are more anxious than usual to spill the goods about Apple, as well. They’ll take any bit of info they can get—from a janitor, if necessary—and publish it as gospel. 

I’m not going to get into the specifics of all of the most recent craziness. Let’s just say some of it is flat out insanely stupid and impossible, while some of it probably contains hints of truth, just poorly interpreted. But that’s the nature of this game, isn’t it? 

Remember the cardinal rule. If your source really knows anything at Apple, he or she isn’t talking. Any info you get is always third hand and piecemeal at this stage of the game. That doesn’t mean it’s all nonsense; it just means that you have to resist taking anything you read at face value. 

One thing that keeps coming up lately is this notion that the event will include multiple announcements. Not just a tablet computer (which we all assume), but a new version of iLife, the next version of the iPhone OS, maybe even new iPhone hardware, too, etc. 

Take a look at the invitation to the event:

While I don’t think there’s much value in reading into Apple’s cryptic invitation tag lines, this particular one from Apple isn’t really cryptic. It says “Come see our latest creation.” Creation. Not creations. 

What does that mean to me? This isn’t Macworld. Jobs isn’t going to have a host of new products to show off. This is a focused event, the way the iPod introduction was a focused event. At Macworld, Jobs would have caught hell for not introducing anything new about the Macintosh. Which is why the iPhone, clearly the star of that show, had to share the stage with other Mac-related announcements three years ago. But here, he’s free to do anything he wants. This is why Apple dropped out of Macworld in the first place. 

But forget the invitation. Apple obviously wants to focus this introduction on one new gadget. Why? Because it’s good marketing. You don’t want to cloud the story. You don’t want to give journalists an opportunity to talk about anything BUT this new creation. 

If you don’t agree with me, watch the Microsoft keynote from CES this year again. And then try to find the onslaught of press that followed it. Good luck with that. 

Now, where do these other rumors come from, and where are the kernels of truth that led to them? Well, that’s a reasonable set of questions. But the answers should also be obvious. 

New version of iLife? Well, sure. iLife for the new Tablet. Apple isn’t going to introduce a new gadget that doesn’t come with any software. And what better way to demonstrate that this isn’t just an “iPod Touch on Steroids” than to show off some powerful software for it that can do things the iPhone can’t dream of doing? A lot of people have speculated about iWork for the tablet, which I certainly think will come eventually, too. But Apple’s pattern is to introduce new things for consumers first, and then work them into the business world later. So iLife makes more sense than iWork, at least to start. (I wouldn’t be surprised if both are introduced on the tablet next week, but there’s only so much demo time available at one of these things, so it’s hard to tell.) 

And yes, that software will probably require a companion new Mac version of iLife for compatibility reasons. But don’t expect Jobs to spend twenty minutes demoing iPhoto 2010 on a Mac. All the demos should be tablet-centric. 

iPhone 4.0 software? Again, as it pertains to the tablet, sure. I would imagine that just as Apple needs to give Mac users a reason to want a tablet, it also needs to give iPhone and iPod Touch users a reason to want a tablet, too. So I expect some integration between the new tablet and the iPhone/iPod Touch. And that will require an update to the iPhone OS. Again, I don’t expect Jobs to send out Scott Forstall to demo seventeen new apps for iPhone this time around. Maybe just bring up a few key points about what’s new, as it pertains to the tablet. 

There’s been some speculation that the tablet will be “running” iPhone OS 4.0. I still find that idea pretty unlikely. The core OS will be the same, surely. But the tablet needs its own UI if it’s going to be successful. 

New iPhone hardware? Well that just doesn’t make sense at all. Introducing a brand new iPhone at the same time as a new tablet is just going to split all the excitement for no good reason. It’s also going to split people’s wallets. I fully expect a new iPhone in June or July, not in January. Remember, all the crazy early adopters are not even a year into their iPhone 3Gs contracts yet. AT&T is already generating enough bad press for Apple. What are the chances that AT&T would let us all out of our commitments cheaply this early? And iPhone on Verizon or Sprint, or T-Mobile? Now you’re really screwing your early adopters. Because AT&T is DEFINITELY not letting you out of your contract early to switch carriers. So you’ll be stuck until July 2011 with yesterday’s phone. Or you’ll be spending so much money on a new iPhone that you won’t have any money left for a tablet. 

You have to bleed your customers slowly over time, not slice their throats. 

And to those who say Apple will announce a new iPhone, but not ship it until June, I ask: What possible good could come from that decision? The iPhone is an established platform, like the Mac. New versions will be announced within a few weeks of shipping from here on out. 

iTunes in the cloud. Here’s another one that keeps coming back to haunt us. Apple bought a little company called Lala. Lala was a company that served up tunes over the web for a fee. Therefore, Apple, the world’s largest and most successful music retailer, is going to change its entire business model to a cloud model. 

At least that was the story a few months ago. Now, people seem to have figured out that this will be a supplemental service, not a fundamental change to the iTunes infrastructure. Keep all your files on your iPods, iPhones, tablets, etc. But, if you happen to be away from all your gadgets, you can still get to your music online via a stream, for a modest fee. Now THAT makes sense. Will it be announced next Wednesday? If Apple can tie it to the tablet and demo it on the tablet, sure. If not, no. Again, focus is the key here.

I won’t go into the tablet naming game. iPad, iSlate, the return of the iBook? I think all those are bad ideas. But it wouldn’t be the first time Apple had a bad name for a product. What it’s called really doesn’t matter all that much to me. I’m still going to want one. 

Whatever the tablet is, expect Jobs to introduce it as the “next revolution” in computing. He’ll show the Mac, the iPod, the iPhone, and then the tablet, to put it amongst the pantheon of game-changing devices in our minds. He’ll convince us that we’re witnessing an historical event. That’s what he does best. 

And he won’t be wrong, either. If touch-based interfaces are going to be the thing that replaces the keyboard and mouse as primary input devices, then the iPhone was the beginning of that transition, and the tablet will be a giant push in that direction. The Mac itself is only a representation of the graphical user interface. The iPod is a representative of the shift to digital music distribution. The gadgets are just conduits for the revolution in interaction. 

I have no doubt that Jobs wants to make history again, because for guys like him, you can never change the world enough. 

 This may very well be Job’s Swan Song, so he’s going to make it count.