Why the iPad line won't be like the iPhone lines of last year

I have a few theories about how April 3rd will go at Apple Stores across America.

1. iPad will be a roaring success, and Apple will sell even more than most people expect on day one.
2. Despite that success, there will be lines, but not crazy long lines that form two days before and leave people not able to get their iPads until days or even weeks after the launch date, as was the case with the last two iPhones.
3. Some in the tech media will try to spin the shorter lines as doom and gloom for Apple.

Here’s why I think iPad will have a great first day of sales:

• There are simply more Apple users out there than there were two years ago. The iPod and iPhone halo effect has grown the Apple customer base in a very big way. So even though I think a phone has a much larger market to grab than a tablet device, Apple has gained a much larger audience to sell to than it had back in 2007. Even if one in twenty iPhone or iPod customers go for the iPad, that’s still a big number.
• The App Store. iPhone didn’t have an app store when it debuted. iPad is compatible with existing iPhone apps, and already there are 16,000+ announced apps that are revamped or designed specifically for the iPad. I’m not sure, but I think that’s more apps than the Palm WebOS has, and the iPad isn’t even for sale yet. And, all of your existing apps can simply sync over to the iPad, so there’s no loss in investment, or worrying about compatibility issues. That’s not even guaranteed between two different Android phones.

But here’s why the line won’t be crazy:

• AT&T is not involved in the transaction. When I waited for the original iPhone in 2007, most of the waiting was before the store opened. Once they started selling the iPhone, I was in and out of the store in less than an hour. Why? Because Apple was letting users handle the activation on their own, at home. So the transaction was a simple matter of choosing a model and ringing it up. The iPhone 3G and 3Gs were a different story. Because of subsidized pricing, you had to activate the phone in the store. In other words, you can sell an iPad in a minute or two; it takes at least 20 minutes to sell one iPhone 3Gs. That’s why, even a few weeks after the 3GS debuted, there were still lines at most stores, and you still had to wait over an hour to get one. iPad won’t have that problem. If you’re patient enough to wait until Sunday the 4th, even, I’m guessing you will be able to walk right in and buy an iPad with no waiting at all, given that they don’t run out.
• WiFi only vs. 3G. The 3G versions of the iPad will be less popular, to be sure. But the fact that the 3G won’t be available on day one will keep some customers from standing in line on day one.
• The iPad is not a revolution, at least not to the media. When the original iPhone came out, it was a true event. It was a revolutionary new device, the likes of which had never been seen before. The iPad is, arguably, an even more important device, as far as the history of computing goes, but it won’t have the same impact in the short term. At least I don’t think so. So, plenty of customers, yes, but not so many that it will get out of hand on day one.
• Everyone “needs” a phone. People don’t think they “need” an iPad—yet.
• Preorders. Apple is offering free delivery, guaranteed on the 3rd, for people who are too lazy to drive to the store. Many will go this route, just for the sake of convenience. Personally, I’d rather head over to a store, where I can get my iPad at 9 or 10 in the morning, rather than wait all day for the FedEx truck to show up. But that’s me. For the people who drive hours to get to their nearest Apple Store, especially, the free home delivery will look pretty appealing.
• Reserve for pickup. You can actually reserve an iPad for pickup at an Apple Store on the 3rd. Come in any time between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. and go home with an iPad. This will help curb the temptation to camp out the night before. After all, who cares what place you are in line, if the line is sure to move fast, and you have a reserved iPad with your name on it waiting for you? This will also help Apple make sure they have enough iPads to meet demand on that first day. Each store will know exactly how many and which flavors of iPad it needs.
• There are more Apple Stores now than two years ago. Just within easy driving distance from where I live, there are over 10 Apple stores. Three more than there were when the original iPhone debuted. If I were willing to drive an hour or more, there would be several others. More stores equals fewer people per store.
• The big day is a Saturday, not a Friday. The first iPhone went on sale on a Friday evening for a reason. Make the sale on a weekday, and you can cut back on some of the craziness with people who can’t get out of work, at least. The fact that Apple is launching iPad on a Saturday indicates to me that Apple itself doesn’t expect the lines to be crazy. So they launch on a Saturday to make the lines a bit bigger, in order to avoid media backlash from lines that appear too short. Which leads me to my final theory.

Here’s why the tech media will spin shorter lines as a bad thing:

Well, do I really have to explain this? Bottom line, the “iPad lines indicate poor sales” stories will be short-lived. Apple will announce staggering sales figures a few days or weeks later, and the media will have to shut up. Okay, maybe they won’t. At least not the Paul Thurrotts and John Dvoraks. But three years from now, when everyone’s grandmother has an iPad in the living room…

In some ways, it’s a shame that the iPad launch event won’t necessarily be the big deal that the iPhone debut was. People still think I was crazy to wait all day in that giant line in Palo Alto. But I got to hang out with old friends, meet some new people, eat plenty of free food, water, and pizza. There was a guy letting people ride around on his Segway. It was like a giant street fair. And it was a blast. Plus, it gave me a sense of community; I wasn’t just buying a new device. I was buying into a cultural phenomenon.

For a minute this morning, I thought about making the 40-minute trip down to Palo Alto again for my in-store pickup of the iPad, just for old-times’ sake. But then I thought about the fact that this one wasn’t going to be such a big party, and I decided to make the much easier ten-minute drive to one of the three San Francisco stores, so I could get home and start playing with the iPad that much faster. I have a feeling I wasn’t the only one.