> Dean Hachamovitch, Microsoft’s General Manager of Internet Explorer, cut to the chase rather quickly, by stating “the future of the Web is HTML5.” He also said that Microsoft has been “deeply engaged” in the HTML5 process with the W3C, the standards body that drafts the specifications for how HTML5 should work. The company’s Internet Explorer 9, now in beta for Windows users, features HTML5 support. Hachamovitch says that while the W3C does not specify a video format for video embedded in HTML5 sites, Microsoft has joined Apple in supporting H.264, and H.264 alone.
>
> In a potential move to soften the blow to [an already upset Adobe](http://www.macworld.com/article/150950/2010/04/adobe_apple.html), Hachamovitch does end his piece with an acknowledgement that “despite [some] issues, Flash remains an important part of delivering a good consumer experience on today’s web.”
>
> Of course, with the rise of the portable devices that don’t support Flash—and especially the popularity of the iPhone and iPad—major publishers and content providers [have quickly accelerated the adoption of](http://www.apple.com/ipad/ready-for-ipad/) HTML5 and H.264 to provide Flash-less video delivery. Or, in other words, while Flash may be the Web technology of *today*, don’t think it will necessarily by the Web technology of *tomorrow.*
via [macworld.com](http://www.macworld.com/article/150960/2010/04/microsoft_flash_html5.html)
This is interesting, but maybe not too surprising. Microsoft is killing two birds with one stone here. It’s been in Microsoft’s best interest to kill Flash ever since it started developing Silverlight. At the same time, Microsoft needs to take every chance it can get to promote the next version of IE as a standards-based browser, since every past version of IE was so terrible on that front that people have begun to wise up and move on.
The mass exodus away from IE is only going to accelerate. Hopping on the HTML5 bandwagon is an act of desperation, but a smart one.
Is it hypocritical to blast Flash while promoting Silverlight in the next gen of Microsoft phones? Absolutely. But it’s also good marketing.
Companies run to “open” and “standards” talk when it suits them. That’s why Apple ended up developing WebKit, Darwin, and all of its open stuff. And it’s why Apple started adopting USB, DVI, etc. It had no other choice when it was the underdog but to jump on bandwagons.
Balancing what you want to distribute freely vs. what you want to keep proprietary is how you make money in the tech business. You need differentiation, but you also need to play well with others. (It’s not altogether like being a sophomore in high school.) Google does this as well. That’s why “Don’t be Evil” is a crock, as Steve Jobs suggested.
Meanwhile, Adobe now isn’t just fighting Apple, but Microsoft, too. (If it weren’t for Google’s ill-conceived passion to kill the iPhone, they’d be fighting Google as well. My guess is that Flash will not boost sales of Android at all, and Adobe will lose that ally soon enough.)
What chance does Adobe have in that battle?
The only question that remains is will Adobe wise up and drop Flash like a hot rock fast enough to save itself from falling into obscurity? They still have tons of great brands they could fall back on. But not if they keep releasing overpriced upgrades that only offer more hooks to Flash.
My prediction: Dreamweaver will be the first to fall. With no HTML5 tools to speak of in CS5, Dreamweaver will be losing a lot of customers to whoever builds a good wysiwyg editor for HTML5.
