Developers complain, not without merit, that the iTunes App Store is rigged toward low-priced apps. But the Android Market seems rigged toward no-price apps. Apple is making a high-profile foray into mobile advertising, yes, but it doesn’t seem to be displacing the market for paid apps. On Android, on the other hand, advertising seems to be the only way for developers to generate significant revenue. Paid Android apps don’t seem to sell well. Are ads a good revenue model for mobile games?
Very good piece from John Gruber on the Andriod vs. iOS app markets.
I would add that the reason Android is rigged toward “no-price apps” is that Google wants it that way. It wants money from ads, since ads are the only way Google has ever made money. This makes perfect sense for Google, but it makes no sense for developers, who are currently doing better with quality apps that they can SELL rather than give away.
Google has no interest whatsoever in whether or not developers make money.
This is the primary reason why I believe that Android will NEVER have the quality of apps that iOS has. For a developer considering Android, there is only one positive motivation (the sheer size of the audience) but dozens of detractors (can’t have paid apps in most countries, need to support hundreds of hardware configurations, ease of pirating, no single marketplace, etc.).
Google is betting that in the long run apps won’t matter. It created a platform that caters to hardware makers (make any device you want, take our OS for free, do whatever you want with it) and primarily serves Google financially (ads, ads, ads). It also makes deals with whatever carrier will take Android, no matter what the carrier demands.
This is all done in the interest of winning the numbers game. Google fans can shout all they want about “open”, and “don’t be evil” but Google has always caved in to corporate interests, rather than serving the interests of its users. “Open” means open to the carriers and the hardware manufacturers, not the users. That’s why you get bloatware apps that you can’t erase, software updates controlled by carriers, new devices shipping with old versions of the software, devices that can’t connect to the marketplace, 7-inch screens on tablets made available before Google was ready with a true version of a tablet-ready OS, etc. Google will literally sell its grandmother’s soul to sell one more Android device.
Apple, on the other hand, created a platform in order to make hardware profit for itself directly and itself alone. It signed on with just one carrier per region at first, so it could be given greater control over the device and its distribution. Whether it be software updates, hardware features, or the app store itself, Apple wanted to call the shots. The idea was to limit third-party involvement to the bare minimum. Have no partners who can screw you in the long term (as Apple has a long history of getting screwed by partners).
All of this was done with a very keen focus on the user. Say what you want about Steve Jobs being a control freak, the majority of his decisions about the iPhone have favored the interests of the users (as a group, not as individuals) over the interests of corporate profits for its partners. This is not out of some selfless desire to do good, of course, but rather in order to give Apple the opportunity to please the customer as much as possible, leading to more sales, and of course, that all-precious asset: loyalty.
Apple wants to be the best, first and foremost, not sell the most. If it happens to sell the most, too, so be it. But it makes far more money selling fewer units to a carefully curated audience than it would if it let the carriers and developers run wild.
Which brings us to developers for iOS. Developers get caught in the middle of Apple’s drive for user loyalty. On one hand, there’s an incredible opportunity to make serious money on the App Store. And Apple’s tight control of the ecosystem has made that possible. No matter how much larger the Android audience gets, iOS will always have the more attractive demographic. Piracy is less of a concern. There’s a limited number of hardware configurations. There’s only one extremely convenient distribution channel. The paperwork is largely taken care of for you. And the 70/30 split of the profits are in your favor. It’s a good place to try and stake a claim for yourself.
On the other hand, Apple is so paranoid about the user experience that it will side with what it thinks is best for its audience over what’s best for the developer. (Camera+ and the volume button come to mind.) App Store customers are APPLE customers first, app developer customers second. You are forever cut off from developing the sort of close relationship Apple builds with its customers.
While there’s always potential that Apple will go too far with the controlling tendencies, and while it is clear from Apple’s behavior that keeping any one developer from becoming too powerful is a high priority (Apple doesn’t want to relive its history with Microsoft and Adobe), for the time being, most developers are seeing the good outweighing the bad with iOS. Unlike with Android, at the end of the day, if you play by Apple’s rules you have a good opportunity to make some decent profit on iOS, at least.
I don’t know whether Google’s bet on high volume sales, user experience be damned, will pan out in the end. I like to think users will choose the better experience at the end of the day. If I had to guess, I’d say that once Apple opens up to more carriers in the coming year (hello, Verizon), and as Windows and RIM stop bleeding customers and even out, Google will see a significant drop in Android growth. (Android will still grow, just not nearly as quickly.)
There are tons of people out there who have yet to buy their first smart phones, so there’s plenty more share to be taken by Google and everyone alike. But Google won’t pose much of a threat to Apple’s core audience in the long run, and Apple will certainly find a way to pick up more new users with more variety in its offerings. (Remember the iPod mini, nano, and shuffle?)
This will leave Android hardware makers with little choice but to get cut throat on price. (We’re already seeing some low-cost Android phones hit the market.) Whether or not hardware makers will be able to make any sort of profit on the scraps from bargain hunters is hard to say. Its even harder to say whether or not anyone can beat Apple on price much, anyway, given what we’re seeing with iPad competitors so far.
If Apple figures out a way to sell a $49 iPhone something on Verizon within the next year or two, I’d say there’s little chance Google’s plans for world domination are going to pan out.
And iOS will still have the best apps, in any case.
