But ask yourself why most of the previous updates were released on Fridays. The reason is Retail. The Apple Stores held big parties on Friday nights, celebrating the new releases, with special offers, T-shirts, etc. Friday nights are great timing for in-store parties.
This time around, Lion is being released on the Mac App Store, not in retail boxes. So releasing on a Friday (which is a horrible press day) makes less sense than it did in the past. There’s no reason to go to an Apple Store to celebrate the release of Lion. You can’t even buy Lion there.
So when do you release, then? Well, there’s no precedent for this, really, so it could literally be any day they choose. But my money would be on a Thursday, since Thursdays are when Apple tends to update its Mac and iTunes App Stores every week. Or, if they truly want a simultaneous release of new Mac models (MacBook Airs, possibly Mac Pros and minis), they would more likely release on a Tuesday, since that’s when most new Macs are released. But that’s far from a certainty as well.
Some folks are suggesting Apple will wait until after next Wednesday’s earnings call, but I don’t see any need for that. Every day they wait is one more day they’re not selling in the current quarter, which already started. The earnings call is about recapping LAST quarter and making predictions for next quarter. It should have very litter bearing on the release schedule of new products.
I’m not saying Lion won’t come out on a Friday, mind you. I’m just saying that assuming it will based on past releases isn’t exactly a lock.
The only surefire prediction is that Lion will be released sometime before July 31st.
