I’m happy that Apple seems to have had a very successful iPad 2 launch. I’m writing this on my shiny new white 32 GB WiFi-only model, and I’m loving it, so the success is much deserved.
And yes, the lines yesterday were indeed long. Which, of course, means we’ll be spending the next two weeks listening to pundits congratulating themselves for having been right about their theory that Apple didn’t allow preorders in order to be sure there would be long lines.
It’s a classic example of “Post hoc, ergo Propter hoc,” which all you West Wing fans will recall means “after, therefore because.” People often make the mistake of assuming that because one event followed the other—Apple didn’t allow preorders/long lines formed—that means that’d the first CAUSED the second—There were long lines BECAUSE Apple didn’t allow preorders.
This is faulty logic, of course. We have no way of knowing exactly what the lines would have been like if preorders had been allowed. We have some idea, based on past evidence, though. The best event to compare this launch to would be last year’s iPad 1 launch. Similar product. Similar time of year. For that launch, Apple did allow preorders, and while the lines weren’t record-breaking, they were significant enough to gather a lot of positive press for Apple.
Furthermore, the differences between that launch and yesterday’s actually would suggest longer lines for yesterday’s launch than last year’s, had preorders been allowed. iPad 1 was an unproven product. No one had spent a year using it, preaching it to his or her friends. A year of rave reviews and talk of Apple’s tablet being THE tablet to get hadn’t happened yet. All the people who wait until the second generation of hardware before buying anything didn’t buy it. There was no availability on Verizon. All of these factors suggest that most likely, Apple has already sold far more iPad 2s than they had iPad 1s last year on opening weekend. Which means it’s likely that lines would have been ample yesterday if preorders had been allowed. If not quite as big as they actually turned out yesterday, at least bigger than last year, which is plenty good enough for positive press.
Rather than making this comparison to the most similar launch, however, most people are choosing to compare yesterday’s launch to Apple’s most recent launch, the launch of the iPhone 4 on Verizon. This comparison is poor due to a number of differences, not the least of which the fact that the iPhone 4 wasn’t really a new product at the time of its launch. In fact, those two launches had very little in common, if you think about it.
And, on top of all these poor comparisons and evidence that is circumstantial, we still can’t deduce Apple’s INTENT regardless. Just because there were lines, that doesn’t mean Apple wanted to guarantee that. I would and have argued that lines were already guaranteed.
Next, consider these facts:
- Apple appears have sold out the iPad 2 in most stores, and most partner stores are sold out as well.
- Apple started allowing iPad 2 online orders earlier than expected yesterday, and almost immediately, the wait time jumped from 2-5 days to 2-3 weeks.
- Apple is launching iPad 2 in several more countries in two weeks.
Given this, I’d say it’s likely that Apple is having trouble meeting demand for this product, and will continue having this problem for a while.
Given that Apple chose to launch in more physical store locations than ever before, coupled with the fact that they chose to launch on a Friday night, both choices that SHRUNK lines, rather than added to them, I’d venture a guess that limited supply was a far more likely reason for choosing not to allow web preorders. After all, if hundreds of thousands of people ordered via the web, and then a lot of people showed up to wait in line, and there weren’t a lot of iPads to go around, that means a lot of angry people would go home empty handed after a long day of waiting. Better to manage expectations and let the web orderers know upfront they would have to wait than to send store goers home empty handed. They chose the lesser of two evils.
Remember a few weeks ago, when John Gruber suggested never betting against Apple doing what’s best for itself and its users over all else? This philosophy most definitely applies to the retail strategy. I know, because I worked there a long time ago.
I guess what I’m saying is that it’s more likely that Apple knew lines would be long, and therefore didn’t allow preorders to ensure it had enough stock to meet demand in the most locations. As opposed to Apple fearing short lines, and therefore limiting buying options. It’s a rule in retail that you always favor the customers who make the most effort to show up and try and buy your product. That’s why you serve the customer in front of you instead of answering the phone. Same goes here. Serve the people who are impatient enough to show up in line. They are the most likely to sing your praises to others. People who wanted to sit at home and order from their couch can wait a few extra days or weeks.
But, as our Latin phrase above reminds us, we’ll never know any of this for sure. Ron Johnson and Tim Cook aren’t about to send out a press release.
