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Google Could Plummet as Apple War Takes Toll | Commentary | Financial Articles & Investing News

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*By Jason Schwarz of [](http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10709986/1/google-could-plummet-as-apple-war-takes-toll.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA#) [www.economictiming.com](http://www.economictiming.com).* > > **Google’s**([GOOG](http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10709986/1/google-could-plummet-as-apple-war-takes-toll.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA#)) in trouble. I’m forecasting the next 24 months will take this stock back to its first-year initial public offering levels of $300 a share. The Internet search giant has ruffled the wrong feathers. > > When I hear **Apple**([AAPL](http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10709986/1/google-could-plummet-as-apple-war-takes-toll.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA#)) CEO Steve Jobs mention that he feels betrayed by Google CEO Eric Schmidt, and when I see Apple go out and buy its own mobile advertising firm, I begin to question Google’s future growth prospects. Apple’s Quattro is coming, it’s going to be revolutionary, and it’s going to be the most important contributor to Google’s demise. But it won’t be the only contributor. With Google it’s a matter of picking its poison. > > **1. Leadership ** > > This company is running like a chicken with its head cut off. Schmidt is flying solo without the help of founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, who are actually selling shares themselves. It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement from the innovators. > > **2. Profitable Innovation** > > In a rapidly changing landscape of mobile innovation, Google is having difficulty making money on anything other than its core [desktop search](http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10709986/1/google-could-plummet-as-apple-war-takes-toll.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA#) business. Desktop search advertising was a great business to be in during the last decade but its growth now looks limited because of the shift towards mobile computing. > > Schmidt knows Google is vulnerable, which explains why we hear about yet another Google experiment on a weekly basis. Last week it was Google broadband; this week it’s Google TV. It’s all a big joke. Even Android is a joke. The recent market share gains from Android are misleading because it suggests Google is making money when all the company really has done is give it away for free. Investors are ready to see profits beyond [desktop](http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10709986/1/google-could-plummet-as-apple-war-takes-toll.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA#) advertising. Twenty four months from now, desktop Internet surfing will be in dramatic decline. > > 3. **Mobile Search Competition** > > Mobile versions of Twitter, Facebook, and **Microsoft’s**([MSFT](http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10709986/1/google-could-plummet-as-apple-war-takes-toll.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA#)) Bing will give Google a run for its money. And I would not bet against Jobs and Apple’s Quattro. The problem for Google is that the [mobile Internet](http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10709986/1/google-could-plummet-as-apple-war-takes-toll.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA#) relies on applications rather than Web sites. Apple controls more than half of the mobile Web market share, and Google is one Jobs decision away from being left out of the Apple ecosystem. This makes Google extremely vulnerable. > >
via [thestreet.com](http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10709986/1/google-could-plummet-as-apple-war-takes-toll.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA)
Wow. I don’t agree with The Street very often, but the concerns expressed here are pretty much exactly how I’ve felt about Google for a while now. I definitely think they are ruffling the wrong feathers with Apple, and I think that they are going to need more than web search to keep them afloat in the long term. Android, as far as I can tell, is never going to be that secondary source of income that Google will need as the importance of desktop search declines. Rather than trying to take on Apple, they should be focused on the kinds of partnerships that got them this far.

And I don’t mean teaming up with a losing technology like Flash, either. Adobe isn’t going to bring great success to Android. It’s a smart strategy for Adobe, for whom Android is their last shot at viability, but I don’t think users care that much about the lack of Flash on mobile devices when all is said and done.

Monsters, Inc. sequel

![Media_httpnewsimgbbcc_rxoip](http://posterous.com/getfile/files.posterous.com/jcieplinski/yvbGyCJangIaGIvkEiwwJGwsrCtshJxspjtvAdlkpsafnJCzzpAhpqleFojz/media_httpnewsimgbbcc_rxoip.jpg.scaled500.jpg)
via [news.bbc.co.uk](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/8639142.stm)
I thought Disney bought Pixar to raise the level of quality for animation. This endless sequel brigade was a large part of the problem over there before Pixar came on board. The fight over whether or not there should be a Toy Story 3 was legendary. Now, not only do we get Toy Story 3, we get Cars 2 and Monsters, Inc. 2.

Don’t let the money go to your heads, guys. Pixar’s sequels so far have not been disappointing, but if you start making sequels just because it’s easy money, you’re going to eventually get that flop that everyone has been predicting for years.

More Goose Murder by Hollywood

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Paramount Pictures is jumping into the 3D fray. The studio will convert the M. Night Shyamalan-directed* The Last  Airbender *into 3D, using Stereo D, the company that worked on James Cameron’s *Avatar*. Release date will remain July 2. Get used to those 3D glasses, is the message, here, I guess. Shyamalan is pretty particular about his movies, so he must be sold on the conversion process. I still need to see more conversions to be sold on them. I attended the Tribeca Festival premiere of *Shrek Forever After*, the DreamWorks Animation film that was conceived in 3D. I found the 3D aspects of the film to be absolutely thrilling. It absolutely enhanced the razor sharp computer animation. 3D conversions have a lot to live up to, but at the same time, the enhancement to the box office revenues of *Clash of the Titans* was undeniable. Insiders say the conversion will cost Paramount between $5M to $10M, which is likely money that will be recouped — at an extra 3 bucks a ticket. > >
via [deadline.com](http://www.deadline.com/2010/04/airbender-goes-3d/)
Sure, the short-term box office effect is undeniable. But what’s the long-term effect of this gouging? I can hear Hollywood crying already about no one going to the movies anymore in a few years. And they’ll blame piracy and even legitimate digital downloads for their lost box office receipts. But $15 3D tickets will be the real reason.

The general public might be sheep, but they’ll rebel eventually.

Didn’t anyone learn anything from the music industry over the last decade?

Personal Muzetto arrived, just in time. I get to airplane/bus/car test it starting tomorrow. Thanks again, WF.

[![Image](http://posterous.com/getfile/files.posterous.com/jcieplinski/eIfouzuzClIjFEuDwijBcgCldyEbsczubIcJykBfBDpajFEuiwokuzAEmDqr/image.jpg.scaled500.jpg)](http://posterous.com/getfile/files.posterous.com/jcieplinski/eIfouzuzClIjFEuDwijBcgCldyEbsczubIcJykBfBDpajFEuiwokuzAEmDqr/image.jpg.scaled1000.jpg)
via tweetie

If only Andy Ihnatko weren't a rarity in modern tech journalism

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Let’s get back to my original question: what would I have done?
We’ll never know for sure. But I suspect that I would have thought very hard and then gone with my first impulse: return the phone to Apple. If it’s been stolen, then Apple is the victim of a crime and the ethical answer is to side with the victim. > > (Given that this is a new smartphone and not a mechanism for electrocuting any iPhone user who attempts to jailbreak their device.) > > If I was told that this phone had been found in a bar…I would have *assumed* that it had been stolen from Apple. Same result. > > And if the “finder” wanted some sort of fee for this device, then I would have brought law enforcement into the discussion. That kind of situation is *so shady* that no journalist with an ounce of sense would come anywhere near it. Even if you could get past the professional ethical dilemma *and* your ethical dilemma as a human being…look, smart people aren’t confused about how to react when someone tries to hand them a knife wrapped in a torn and bloody UPS uniform and asks them to hide it for a couple of weeks. I don’t mind these problems that you have to discuss with your editor. But I try to avoid the sort of problems that result in a conversation with a criminal defense attorney. > >
So. I say once again that Gizmodo has a *lot* of explaining to do. Even if they’re completely innocent of any wrongdoing, they need to resolve this part of the story.
via [ihnatko.com](http://ihnatko.com/2010/04/19/the-increasingly-plausible-miraculous-engadget-and-gizmodo-iphone-4g/)
I highly encourage you to read this whole article. Andy has always been my favorite tech journalist, and articles like this one, posted on his personal blog, are the reason why.

I don’t always agree with the guy 100%, but the man just has class. And he’s got a much better gift for words than I do.

And on this issue of the stolen Apple prototype iPhone, I have to agree completely. Gizmodo and Engadget have almost certainly behaved unethically, and they should be made to explain themselves.

Note to John Gruber: This is how you politely criticize your peers in the tech press without sounding like an insecure, petty egomaniac. I like what you have to write most of the time, but the main thing keeping you from greatness on the level of Ihnatko is your tendency to let your pride get the better of you. You just got mentioned favorably by Andy, and deservedly so, for some good work on your coverage of this topic. Don’t let that go to your head. Try to remember it next time you are tempted to slam bloggers on other sites for no good reason, other than to prove to the world that you’re always right about everything.